{"id":1703,"date":"2026-01-23T12:52:19","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:52:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thefridaynews.com\/?p=1703"},"modified":"2026-01-23T12:52:28","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:52:28","slug":"sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thefridaynews.com\/?p=1703","title":{"rendered":"SBP likely to cut policy rate by 50bps on Jan 26: poll"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The central bank is expected to cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points at its upcoming meeting, a Reuters<\/em> poll showed, as easing inflation, improving foreign exchange buffers and a stabilising rupee bolster the case for further monetary easing despite lingering risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The State Bank of Pakistan\u2019s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on Jan 26 (Monday).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the 10 analysts surveyed, seven expect the SBP to cut rates by 50 basis points, two see a deeper 75 basis point reduction, while one expects the central bank to hold rates unchanged, following a surprise cut in December <\/a>that ended a four-meeting pause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The median forecast points to a 50 bps cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would cement a change in direction from the SBP\u2019s aggressive tightening cycle after rates peaked at a record 22 per cent in 2023, with cumulative cuts since mid-2024 totalling 1,150 bps so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts projecting a 50 bps move cited moderating inflation, higher foreign exchange reserves and a better balance of payments outlook, while flagging the need for caution given persistent core inflation and geopolitical risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The inflation outlook has eased marginally and external buffers have strengthened, giving the SBP room to support growth, said Waqas Ghani, Head of equity research at JS Global Capital , adding that expectations remain anchored despite elevated non-food inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those expecting a larger cut argue that macroeconomic conditions are now aligned for more decisive easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan appears on the verge of returning to a single-digit policy rate, said Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Limited, pointing to improving growth momentum, stable reserves and inflation running below the central banks medium-term target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 50 basis point cut would bring Pakistan\u2019s policy rate to 10.5 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The cautious camp, however, warned that risks remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fawad Basir, head of research at KTrade, cited geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on fuel prices as a reason for a measured pace of easing, while AKD Securities expects the central bank to hold rates until July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The survey follows data showing<\/a> inflation slowed to 5.6pc year-on-year in December, with prices falling on a monthly basis due to lower perishable food costs, though non-food inflation remains elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SBP has said inflation stayed within its 5-7pc target range during July-November but warned core inflation remains sticky and headline inflation could rise temporarily toward the end of the fiscal year due to base effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The International Monetary Fund, in a report, has cautioned against premature monetary easing under Pakistan\u2019s $7 billion loan programme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The central bank is expected to cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points at its upcoming<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-newsbeat"],"yoast_head":"\nSBP likely to cut policy rate by 50bps on Jan 26: poll - The Friday News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thefridaynews.com\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SBP likely to cut policy rate by 50bps on Jan 26: poll - The Friday News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The central bank is expected to cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points at its upcoming\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thefridaynews.com\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Friday News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-23T12:52:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-01-23T12:52:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/thefridaynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/23172351056c4b5.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"480\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"thefridaynews\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"thefridaynews\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"thefridaynews\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e020f85335112c59d4c3d9ed6b67b37b\"},\"headline\":\"SBP likely to cut policy rate by 50bps on Jan 26: poll\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-23T12:52:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-01-23T12:52:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":427,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/23172351056c4b5.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Business\",\"Newsbeat\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thefridaynews.com\\\/sbp-likely-to-cut-policy-rate-by-50bps-on-jan-26-poll\\\/\",\"name\":\"SBP likely to cut policy rate by 50bps on Jan 26: poll - 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